URGENT UPDATE: Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to soar to a new all-time high in 2026, breaking its traditional four-year cycle pattern, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. This bold prediction comes as Hougan highlights a shift in market dynamics that could redefine Bitcoin’s trajectory.
In a statement released Monday, Hougan emphasized that the forces propelling Bitcoin’s historical cycles are weakening. Key factors such as pro-crypto regulations and an influx of capital from institutional crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are expected to bolster prices in the coming years.
Historically, Bitcoin has adhered to a four-year cycle, characterized by three notable up years followed by a sharp pullback year. Based on this pattern, 2026 was anticipated to be a pullback year, especially since the latest halving occurred in April 2024. However, Hougan argues that the underlying dynamics have shifted significantly.
“In our view, the forces that previously drove four-year cycles — the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto’s leverage-fueled booms and busts — are significantly weaker than they’ve been in past cycles,” Hougan stated.
The anticipated wave of institutional investment is set to accelerate in 2026, particularly after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Major financial institutions like Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch are beginning to allocate resources toward these investment vehicles. Notably, Bank of America has just permitted its financial advisers to recommend Bitcoin ETFs, potentially channeling portions of the bank’s $3.5 trillion in client assets into the crypto market.
Adding to this bullish outlook, the research team at Grayscale shares a similar sentiment, predicting that Bitcoin will achieve new heights in the first half of 2026. Grayscale attributes this anticipated surge to macro demand for alternative stores of value amidst rising public debt and the improved regulatory landscape.
Moreover, Hougan pointed out that interest rate cycles are now favorable for cryptocurrencies. In contrast to the pressures of rising rates experienced in 2018 and 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates three times in 2025 and is expected to maintain a downward trend into the next year.
As for volatility, Bitwise noted that Bitcoin’s price fluctuations have decreased significantly over the last decade. In fact, Bitcoin has shown less volatility than Nvidia throughout 2025. This trend is expected to carry into 2026, with Bitcoin’s correlation to stocks predicted to diminish, allowing for upward price movement even as equities face valuation concerns.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading near $87,000, experiencing a slight decline of nearly 1% at the time of this report. This evolving landscape makes it a critical moment for investors and market observers.
As developments unfold, the financial world will be watching closely to see if Bitcoin can indeed break its historical patterns and achieve the anticipated new heights. Stay tuned for more updates on this rapidly changing story.
