Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined to 44%, according to the latest NBC poll, marking a decrease of three points from 47% in March 2025. Concurrently, disapproval ratings have climbed to 54%. The data from the DDHQ polling average aligns closely with this assessment, showing figures of 43.1% approval and 54.4% disapproval. This downward shift in public sentiment has significant implications for financial markets as the midterm elections approach.
Trump has highlighted the historical trend where the party in the White House often suffers losses during midterm elections. Should the Republicans lose seats in Congress, it would fundamentally alter the legislative landscape, affecting key areas such as tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation. These factors are already factored into current equity valuations to some extent.
Polling on specific issues reveals a mixed picture. Border security enjoys a solid approval rating of 53%, while broader immigration policy stands at just 44%. Approval for Trump’s Iran policy is even lower at 41%. Compounding these challenges are controversies surrounding the handling of the Epstein case and immigration, which are seen as diminishing Trump’s political capital.
As the clock ticks down to November, the potential for passing his pro-growth agenda seems increasingly uncertain. The pressing matters of immigration and Iran are dominating discussions, leaving limited room for other legislative initiatives. There is growing speculation about whether Trump will face internal pressure to expedite the resolution of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Republican strategists acknowledge that losing control of the House appears inevitable, but the Senate remains a battleground. A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could alienate segments of Trump’s voting base, further jeopardizing Republican chances. According to Polymarket, the odds currently favor Republicans holding the Senate at 53%, compared to 48% for Democrats. The landscape is tough for Democrats, with only a few competitive opportunities in states like Maine and North Carolina.
Should Trump lose control of the Senate agenda, the final two years of his presidency could be tumultuous. It would hinder his ability to make judicial appointments, including potential vacancies on the Supreme Court. Additionally, relentless investigations into his administration could emerge, complicating governance further.
This precarious situation could drive Trump to seek a reduction in oil prices, ideally bringing them back down to the $60 range. Yet, the question remains: Is Iran willing to negotiate? As the political landscape shifts, market participants will need to remain vigilant in assessing how these developments unfold, as they could have lasting impacts on economic policies and market stability.
