Vice President J.D. Vance maintains a narrow lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a recent hypothetical poll regarding the 2028 presidential race. Conducted by Emerson College on October 13 and 14, 2023, the survey indicates that 46 percent of respondents would support Vance, while 45 percent favor Newsom. The poll also revealed that 10 percent of those surveyed remain undecided.
Both Vance and Newsom have yet to formally declare their candidacies, but they are widely viewed as potential contenders for their respective parties. This latest poll is part of a series by Emerson, which has shown Vance leading slightly in previous surveys. In a late August poll, Vance was ahead by less than a point, and in July, his lead was reported at 3 percent.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College polling, noted in a press release, “The 2026 congressional ballot and the hypothetical 2028 matchup between Vance and Newsom also remain unchanged, suggesting a polarized electorate where individual issues may not be enough to sway overall opinion.” He emphasized the significance of the economy as a major factor influencing voter sentiment, particularly among women and younger voters who believe it is moving in the wrong direction.
Newsom’s Ascending National Profile
Governor Newsom has been actively working to elevate his national profile this year, positioning himself as a leading voice against former President Donald Trump. His approach has garnered attention, especially regarding his communication strategies on social media. In August, Vance criticized Newsom for what he described as an inauthentic attempt to “mimic” Trump during an appearance on “The Will Cain Show.”
In addition to his national ambitions, Newsom is also embroiled in a state-level political maneuver. He is advocating for Proposition 50, a ballot measure that aims to redraw California’s congressional districts to potentially convert five seats from Republican to Democratic control. This initiative, which will be voted on November 4, has received mixed reactions from voters in California.
Vance is also engaged in discussions surrounding redistricting efforts. He has made several trips to Indiana over the past three months, promoting the need for the state to adjust its district lines to create more Republican seats. The success of these efforts remains uncertain, as Indiana Governor Mike Braun expressed concerns about their viability in the state legislature.
Social Media Exchanges and Political Tensions
The political rivalry between Vance and Newsom has intensified, particularly following events in June. The two exchanged criticisms on social media after Trump deployed the National Guard to Los Angeles to address protests against immigration raids and the actions of border patrol agents.
The Emerson College poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. While the poll reflects current sentiments, the political landscape is likely to evolve as the 2028 election approaches. Both Vance and Newsom’s offices have not immediately responded to requests for comments regarding the poll results.
As the political climate continues to shift, observers will be watching closely to see how the candidates navigate these challenges and how voter priorities may shape their campaigns in the lead-up to the next presidential election.
