The 31st Critics Choice Awards, held recently, provided significant insights into the ongoing Oscar race. With the Golden Globes scheduled for March 10, 2024, and Oscar nomination voting opening on March 11, the Critics Choice ceremony served as a critical indicator for Academy members as they prepare their ballots. Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, “One Battle After Another,” dominated the awards, winning best picture, director, and adapted screenplay. This impressive sweep signals to the industry that it is the film to beat as nominations approach.
Historically, a combination of these three wins at the Critics Choice Awards suggests strong potential for Oscar success. The film’s broad appeal and critical acclaim position it favorably in the preferential ballot system, where films that resonate across various Academy branches often have an advantage. Despite this, the Critics Choice Awards are not voted on by Oscar voters, which introduces a layer of uncertainty. Yet, when a film excites critics and captures the interest of Academy voters, it becomes increasingly challenging to overlook.
As the awards season progresses, there is a growing anticipation regarding the film’s performance in acting categories. Chase Infiniti has been noted for his standout performance, while the possibility of additional recognition for Regina Hall remains a point of interest. A pivotal question is whether “One Battle After Another” can secure a win in acting or craft categories, as historically, few films have clinched the best picture award without such accolades. Notably, the last two films to achieve this were “The Greatest Show on Earth” in 1952 and “Spotlight” in 2015.
Warner Bros. emerged as a leading studio at the Critics Choice Awards, with “Sinners” co-leading all films with four awards, including original screenplay for Ryan Coogler and best young actor for Miles Caton. This success hints at a coalition of support that could carry through to the Golden Globes and potentially other major guilds like SAG and the Writers Guild. If “Sinners” maintains its momentum, it may become a late-breaking contender in the race.
Netflix’s “Frankenstein” also made a mark, with Jacob Elordi winning best supporting actor for his role as the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s gothic reimagining. This victory raises questions about Elordi’s nomination prospects. Prior to this win, he had secured only two critics awards, suggesting he was on the fringes of the race compared to more established candidates like Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn. Notably, no Critics Choice winner for best supporting actor has ever missed an Oscar nomination, positioning Elordi favorably as awards season progresses.
The acting categories display a dynamic landscape. Jessie Buckley‘s win for her portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s film “Hamnet” was highlighted by a poignant acceptance speech. Buckley’s victory offers a way for voters to recognize a film that may falter in the best picture category, given it was the only award for the film. Her competitors, Renate Reinsve and Rose Byrne, will need to intensify their campaigning to stay in contention.
In the best actor category, Timothée Chalamet won for his performance in “Marty Supreme.” This accolade enhances his frontrunner status as he heads into the Golden Globes, where genre-friendly voters could bolster his chances. At just 30 years old, Chalamet is set to become the second youngest best actor winner in Oscar history and the youngest to claim the Critics Choice award. This adds a layer of intrigue, considering the Academy’s past decisions regarding age and experience.
Winners from the Critics Choice Awards have not always translated their success into Oscars. Past winners like Chadwick Boseman and Christian Bale faced disappointments despite being frontrunners. The forthcoming weeks will be crucial as Oscar voting opens on March 11. The landscape remains fluid, with potential for new contenders to emerge.
As the awards season unfolds, all eyes will be on the Golden Globes and subsequent guild nominations. The outcomes of these events could redefine the trajectory of the Oscar race, making the next few days particularly significant for the filmmakers, actors, and studios involved. The industry eagerly anticipates how these dynamics will shape the conversation leading up to the Academy Awards.
