The increasing adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonist medications, particularly drugs like Ozempic, is significantly reshaping food purchasing behaviors across the United States. A recent study by researchers at Cornell University highlights this shift, revealing that households using these weight-loss drugs are altering their grocery spending in notable ways.
Utilizing transaction records from Numerator, which tracks purchases from approximately 150,000 US homes, the researchers examined food buying patterns before and after the initiation of GLP-1 medication. They also incorporated surveys that identified which household members were using the drugs and the timeline of their usage. The findings indicate a clear trend: within six months of starting GLP-1 treatment, households reduced their grocery spending by an average of 5.3%, with higher-income consumers cutting back by 8%.
The impact extends beyond grocery stores; fast-food restaurants and coffee shops have also seen a decline in sales, averaging around 8%. “The data show clear changes in food spending following adoption,” stated Sylvia Hristakeva from the Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. She further noted that after individuals discontinued the medication, spending patterns began to revert to pre-adoption levels, indicating a strong correlation between GLP-1 use and purchasing habits.
The study revealed that certain categories of food experienced sharper declines. Ultra-processed and calorie-dense items, notably sweets and savory snacks, saw a decrease of around 10%. Even staples like eggs and meat faced reduced sales. Conversely, there was a notable uptick in the purchase of healthier options. Yogurt led the way with the most significant increase, while fresh fruits, nutritional bars, and meat-based snacks also gained popularity.
As GLP-1 usage continues to grow, from 11% of US households in late 2023 to over 16% by mid-2024, food manufacturers are adapting their marketing strategies. Notably, Conagra Brands has begun labeling its Healthy Choice products as “GLP-1 Friendly,” despite no alterations in the product formulations. This reflects a trend where companies are expected to promote products targeting GLP-1 users, a move identified by industry experts as both a challenge and an opportunity.
Justin Shimek, CEO of food innovation firm Mattson, emphasized the dual nature of these medications for the food industry during a recent webinar. “These medications are both a risk and opportunity for the food industry,” he stated. “Clearly, we believe this is going to be a time of disruption.” Research from Mattson indicates that GLP-1 users are consuming 66% less soda and alcohol, with 93% reporting smaller meal sizes and over 60% stating they think about food less frequently.
The research published in the Journal of Marketing Research highlights the potential long-term implications of these changes. Researchers anticipate that by 2035, as many as 24 million Americans may be on GLP-1 medications, suggesting a sustained shift in food demand.
While the study could not definitively ascertain that GLP-1 drugs were the sole factor driving down food expenditures, the evidence amassed—from clinical trials to observable changes in consumer behavior—strongly indicates that appetite suppression is a significant driver of these trends. Analysts from Morgan Stanley remain optimistic about the resilience of restaurants and specialty outlets, suggesting that these establishments will evolve to cater to changing consumer preferences. Brian Harbour, covering US restaurants and food distributors for Morgan Stanley, noted, “Many chains will evolve over time to respond to consumer tastes.”
In conclusion, the findings from Cornell University illustrate a transformative moment in the food industry, driven by the rise of GLP-1 medications. As consumer habits shift, understanding these trends will be crucial for businesses aiming to navigate the evolving market landscape.
