A senior Japanese official’s recent suggestion that Japan should consider acquiring nuclear weapons has reignited discussions about the country’s longstanding stance on nuclear armament. This proposal has emerged against a backdrop of growing concerns over regional security, particularly in light of increasing tensions with China and North Korea.
Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s Minister of Economic Security, indicated that it may be time to evaluate Japan’s nuclear deterrent capabilities. This marks a potential shift for a nation that has long maintained a pacifist constitution and a firm stance against nuclear proliferation. Japan is the only country to have experienced atomic bombings, making this conversation particularly sensitive.
As security dynamics evolve, some experts are advocating for a reassessment of Japan’s defense strategy. Takaichi’s remarks coincided with heightened rhetoric from China, which has accused Japan of reverting to militarism reminiscent of the pre-World War II era. The suggestion for Japan to acquire nuclear capabilities aligns with concerns about China’s expanding military arsenal and North Korea’s ongoing nuclear ambitions.
Changing Security Landscape
An unnamed official from Takaichi’s Cabinet emphasized the urgency of these discussions, citing the growing threats from neighboring countries. Notably, the late Henry Kissinger forecasted that Japan could become a nuclear power within five years. He highlighted the persistent anxieties Japan harbors regarding its relationship with China and the shifting balance of power in the region.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 has further altered the security landscape, prompting debates about allowing U.S. forces to operate from Japanese territory. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a mentor to Takaichi, argued against maintaining a taboo on discussions related to national security.
Within Takaichi’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, some lawmakers are calling for a review of Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles, which prohibit the production, possession, or deployment of nuclear weapons in Japan. They argue that permitting U.S. nuclear weapons on Japanese soil could strengthen the nuclear umbrella that protects Japan, which some contend has weakened in light of recent geopolitical developments.
According to Rajeswari Rajagopalan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, “China’s nuclear expansion poses a challenge to the U.S. extended deterrence, on which Japan depends.” She suggests that if China reaches nuclear parity with the U.S., Japan might question Washington’s commitment to its defense.
Public Sentiment and International Implications
The issue of nuclear weapons remains contentious among the Japanese public. A recent nationwide poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun indicated that 73 percent of respondents support Japan joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which seeks to ban the development of nuclear arms. This represents a noticeable increase from previous years, reflecting shifting public sentiment on the matter.
Despite this support for disarmament, the poll also revealed that 38 percent of Japanese citizens still view the U.S. nuclear umbrella as necessary for their national security. This figure, while slightly lower than in previous years, underscores the complexities of public opinion regarding nuclear deterrence.
Chinese officials have responded to Japan’s discussions on nuclear capability, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun accusing Japan of stockpiling plutonium beyond civilian requirements. He asserted that Japan possesses the technological means to develop nuclear weapons swiftly, should it decide to abandon its pacifist principles. Such a shift would not only contravene the TPNW but could also provoke strong opposition from the United States, which recognizes only five countries as nuclear-armed states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
As Japan navigates these pressing security challenges, the conversation around nuclear weapons is likely to intensify, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions and the evolving nature of international relations in the region.
