The NBA’s midseason landscape has become increasingly complex as teams navigate the second half of the season. While every team except the Houston Rockets has surpassed the 41-game mark, a notable shift in performance has emerged among the league’s preseason favorites. Recent analysis from ESPN’s Kevin Pelton and analyst Zach Kram highlights critical questions regarding the championship prospects of teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the New York Knicks.
Are the Defending Champions Vulnerable?
The Oklahoma City Thunder, who began the season with a remarkable 24-1 record, have recently shown signs of vulnerability. Following a disappointing loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Cup semifinals, the Thunder’s performance has declined. They now stand at 12-7, with a net rating of just +6.4, dropping from first to third in defensive rankings and slipping to 14th in offensive efficiency.
Several factors contribute to this downturn. The Thunder’s three-point shooting has plummeted to 28th in the league, with a mere 32.5% success rate during this stretch. Injuries have also played a role, most notably with Jalen Williams suffering a hamstring strain shortly after returning from wrist surgery. The absence of pivotal players like Isaiah Hartenstein has compounded the challenges faced by the Thunder.
Despite these setbacks, advanced metrics still favor the Thunder’s chances of repeating as champions. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index currently gives Oklahoma City a 61% chance of winning the title, a figure unmatched by any other team.
Kram expressed skepticism about the Thunder’s ability to maintain their elite status, particularly citing concerns about their offensive consistency. “It’s not just Oklahoma City’s shooting slump that has caused them to drift off historic pace,” he noted. “Opponents have also shot 38% on three-pointers during the 12-7 stretch.”
Who Will Emerge from the East?
In the Eastern Conference, the competitive landscape has shifted significantly. While the New York Knicks initially appeared poised for a strong playoff run, they currently find themselves struggling to keep pace with the top-seeded Detroit Pistons. The Knicks have slipped to six games behind the Pistons, raising questions about their status as genuine contenders.
Pelton pointed out that the Knicks have not performed well in underlying metrics, with a +3.5 point differential that ranks third in the East. The Pistons, meanwhile, lead in defensive efficiency but face their own challenges, particularly in three-point shooting, where they rank 26th in the league.
Kram remains cautious about the Knicks’ prospects, noting, “I was much less confident about it than I was in my selection of Oklahoma City out West.” The uncertainty surrounding the Knicks, combined with the resilience of other teams such as the Boston Celtics and the Pistons, leaves the Eastern playoff picture wide open.
As the season progresses, the health and performance of star players will be crucial. The Celtics need Jayson Tatum to return to form, and the 76ers’ success hinges on Joel Embiid continuing his impressive scoring run. The Knicks, who have struggled defensively, must also address their shortcomings to secure a favorable playoff position.
Potential Surprise Contenders
As the race for playoff positioning heats up, a few teams have emerged as potential dark horses. The Los Angeles Clippers, despite facing a rocky start this season, have rebounded with a 12-2 record since their 6-21 beginning. The resurgence is largely attributed to the performance of Kawhi Leonard, who is averaging 32.7 points per game during this stretch.
Leonard’s health remains a concern, as he has recently been sidelined due to knee irritation. The Clippers’ path to the playoffs is complicated by their early-season struggles, likely leading them to a play-in matchup. Yet, if they can secure a higher seed, they may pose a significant challenge to established contenders.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are another team to watch. Although they are currently tied for sixth in the East, their season is far from over. They possess a strong point differential and could capitalize on favorable matchups in the playoffs.
Concerns Surrounding Paolo Banchero
The season has also seen struggles from rising star Paolo Banchero of the Orlando Magic. After a promising start, Banchero has faced difficulties, with his scoring average dropping significantly. He has also struggled with efficiency, even as the Magic continue to perform better when he is off the court.
Pelton noted that while Banchero’s struggles are concerning, there is still time for improvement. “His recent uptick in performance suggests that he may yet find his rhythm,” he remarked. Banchero’s potential to impact the Magic’s success remains substantial, but the question of his consistency continues to loom large.
As the NBA season unfolds, the landscape remains fluid, with injuries, performance fluctuations, and emerging contenders shaping the narrative. Teams like the Thunder and Knicks must navigate these challenges to solidify their positions, while surprise candidates like the Clippers and Cavaliers look to disrupt the status quo as playoff ambitions intensify.
