UPDATE: The latest report on U.S. inflation is set to be significantly impacted as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed that the October data will be skipped due to the ongoing government shutdown. This means that the focus will shift entirely to the November numbers, which are expected to reveal headline annual inflation at 3.1%, a slight increase from 3.0% in September.
With this urgent development, market analysts and policymakers are bracing for the implications of the revised data collection methods. While the BLS will not provide October figures, they may still present some data points based on online pricing and private sources. This has raised concerns about the reliability and clarity of the upcoming report.
The BLS will release the November CPI data later today, and expectations are that core annual inflation will remain steady at 3.0%. Analysts from major financial institutions, including Bank of America (BofA), Goldman Sachs, and Barclays, have shared their forecasts, indicating a complicated landscape for inflation metrics.
Analysts predict that the two-month change in inflation will be assessed closely. BofA forecasts a combined CPI inflation of 0.46% for the two months ending in November. They anticipate that year-over-year headline and core CPI inflation will drop from 3.0% in September to 2.9% in November, driven in part by new health insurance data that may weigh on inflation numbers.
Goldman Sachs has indicated that core inflation could average around 0.21% month-over-month across October and November. They point to upward pressures from tariffs on certain goods but note potential downward influences from delayed data collection, particularly in categories typically subject to significant holiday discounts.
Barclays analysts are also cautious, emphasizing that the report will lack a “clean” read on inflation trends due to incomplete October data. They expect core goods prices to rise, influenced by a rebound in used car prices.
As the inflation report approaches, market participants are increasingly anxious about how the data will influence central bank decisions and consumer behavior. With the holiday shopping season underway, the impact of inflation on prices could have significant repercussions for both consumers and the broader economy.
Stay tuned for the final report which will be released later today, offering a clearer picture of the inflation landscape as we head deeper into the final quarter of 2023.
